The government delivered another 21 million doses to states over the last week, only a slight increase from the weekly 20 million we’ve been seeing since Johnson & Johnson entered the scene at the end of February.
Why 70%?While there’s still no clear percentage of the population necessary to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, 70% is a good place to start. Herd immunity refers to the protectiveness achieved when a significant portion of a population develops immunity to an infectious disease, either through vaccination or having a prior illness. Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, used to say 60% to 70% of the population needed to be vaccinated or recovered to reach herd immunity,his projection has evolvedto range from 70% to 90%.Herd immunity is a complex calculation that relies on both past infections and number of people vaccinated. Because the World Health Organization emphasizes herd immunity should rely on vaccination and not disease exposure,for the sake of projections, our numbers focus on the time it will take to hit 70% through vaccination alone.
Why 70%?
While there’s still no clear percentage of the population necessary to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, 70% is a good place to start. Herd immunity refers to the protectiveness achieved when a significant portion of a population develops immunity to an infectious disease, either through vaccination or having a prior illness. Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, used to say 60% to 70% of the population needed to be vaccinated or recovered to reach herd immunity,his projection has evolvedto range from 70% to 90%.Herd immunity is a complex calculation that relies on both past infections and number of people vaccinated. Because the World Health Organization emphasizes herd immunity should rely on vaccination and not disease exposure,for the sake of projections, our numbers focus on the time it will take to hit 70% through vaccination alone.
While there’s still no clear percentage of the population necessary to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, 70% is a good place to start. Herd immunity refers to the protectiveness achieved when a significant portion of a population develops immunity to an infectious disease, either through vaccination or having a prior illness. Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, used to say 60% to 70% of the population needed to be vaccinated or recovered to reach herd immunity,his projection has evolvedto range from 70% to 90%.
Herd immunity is a complex calculation that relies on both past infections and number of people vaccinated. Because the World Health Organization emphasizes herd immunity should rely on vaccination and not disease exposure,for the sake of projections, our numbers focus on the time it will take to hit 70% through vaccination alone.
According to theNew York Times, at least 20 states will open vaccine eligibility to all adults in March or April. Alaska and Mississippi already have. Last week, specifically:
When more groups become eligible for their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, the long-term outlook for a state becomes better—after all, herd immunity relies on an increase in the total number of people vaccinated. Therefore, an increase in first doses nudges a state a little further along the herd immunity timeline than an increase in second doses.
The challenge is having enough vaccine supply to continue putting shots in newly-eligible arms. And as the (very short) history of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout shows, slow and steady may actually win the race.
States like Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico, and Connecticut have kept their eligible populations fairly narrow throughout the bulk of the rollout, expanding a little at a time. As a result, two things are true. First, more high-risk people are vaccinated in these places. And second, these states are also equipped to maintain high efficiencies when it comes to administering their available doses to even wider groups of people.
1 SourceVerywell Health uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.World Health Organization.Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19. December 31, 2020.
1 Source
Verywell Health uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.World Health Organization.Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19. December 31, 2020.
Verywell Health uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.
World Health Organization.Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Herd immunity, lockdowns and COVID-19. December 31, 2020.
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